Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 23.535202 25.637719 27.912107 30.567229 33.596992 36.964704 41.016634
2025-12-14 20.166366 23.016536 26.316980 30.468150 35.617843 41.889890 50.256883
2025-12-21 18.387043 21.796712 25.974458 31.578497 39.075163 49.033184 63.772917
2025-12-28 16.504105 20.123449 24.751241 31.278729 40.560837 53.830325 75.387800
2026-01-04 15.146278 18.907889 23.894437 31.242123 42.279826 59.179185 89.264314
2026-01-11 14.176266 18.068503 23.397212 31.568986 44.494798 65.654736 107.037025
2026-01-18 13.206582 17.115286 22.608007 31.313939 45.700693 70.676218 123.940961
2026-01-25 12.408708 16.319995 21.945812 31.134015 46.947762 75.988866 143.556010
2026-02-01 11.757706 15.673522 21.427974 31.093771 48.389186 81.961501 167.426309
2026-02-08 11.157383 15.049485 20.878145 30.917247 49.528855 87.584077 193.435909
2026-02-15 10.616389 14.471632 20.344217 30.693363 50.522995 93.134234 222.668828
2026-02-22 10.135543 13.950290 19.853024 30.479897 51.488639 98.871095 256.595360
2026-03-01 9.718356 13.510803 19.475819 30.459824 52.916739 106.342938 303.995422
2026-03-08 9.306550 13.054775 19.037614 30.282955 54.000783 113.367995 357.658982
2026-03-15 9.147731 12.989346 19.245963 31.345593 58.013850 129.915482 479.716903
2026-03-22 8.770876 12.547263 18.774182 31.031607 58.812430 137.449533 568.117679
2026-03-29 8.467704 12.207992 18.455862 30.987392 60.254829 147.675979 698.492676
2026-04-05 8.242674 11.984491 18.324237 31.306691 62.668734 162.375838 912.212049
2026-04-12 7.951441 11.633684 17.938696 31.052927 63.560562 172.103336 1122.207432
2026-04-19 7.691485 11.322490 17.604542 30.874340 64.629871 183.180666 1413.622290
2026-04-26 7.467711 11.061843 17.346318 30.834207 66.085217 196.795910 1856.938373
2026-05-03 7.241245 10.785546 17.041281 30.659607 67.133418 209.384598 2436.306931
2026-05-10 7.023220 10.513953 16.728788 30.438293 68.013766 221.905772 3243.964782